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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Oil supply is decreasing (Hubbert and all), but I don’t think Gas supply is decreasing. Rather, gas supply is increasing both in terms of “reserves” and “production”,
quite rapidly. It’s not necessarily a good thing for other reasons, but betting the farm on running out of hydrocarbon energy anytime soon is probably not a good bet. I would predict that restrictions on consumption will be a bigger factor than scarcity
of supply. Once you take the capital cost hit to change over from coal/oil to natural gas, the operating costs go way down, both for the feedstock, but also for other things like remediation, emissions controls, maintenance, etc. It is a LOT cheaper to run
a power plant on natural gas than almost anything else: no ash, no corrosive acid exhaust, etc.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">The real issue with NG is storage and transportation. Unlike coal or oil, it’s hard to store a year’s supply by just piling it up or filling tanks, which means
that he who has the gas has a lot of leverage over he who consumes the gas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Jim Lux<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext">From:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext"> beowulf-bounces@beowulf.org [mailto:beowulf-bounces@beowulf.org]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Reiner Hartenstein<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Saturday, April 06, 2013 12:57 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> BEOWULF<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Beowulf] Electricity cost: a critical survival issue of our ICT infrastructures.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Dear friends,</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""><br>
Energy cost will massively grow within this and next decade because of<br>
decreasing oil and gas supply and rapidly growing electricity demand. <br>
For the time from 2008 until 2030 the electricity comsumption growth <br>
of all our ICT infrastructures has been predicted by a factor of 30<br>
--- if current trends continue. Also the price per kWh will probably grow <br>
by another factor, so that the electricity cost to run our ICT infrastructures <br>
may grow by a factor of 100 or even more during this period of time.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">We need your ideas on how to cope with this challenge by current trends.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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These problems are also subject of PATMOS 2013: <a href="http://fpl.org/CFP7/">http://fpl.org/CFP7/</a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Best regards,<br>
Reiner Hartenstein </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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