[Beowulf] First 96-Node Transmeta Desktop Cluster Ships
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Jim Lux jimlux at earthlink.netThu May 5 06:57:40 PDT 2005
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> As for that wide variation, well, the market for programming talent > appears to be pretty innefficient. Paul Graham has good ideas about > why this is probably so: > > http://www.paulgraham.com/gh.html > Paul cites the old 10:1 productivity canard (old and canard may be redundant) from Brooks. The actual study back in the 60s was very contrived and not necessarily representative of what subsequent The study, done at SDC (System Development Corp, a RAND-like company at the time) compared total programming rookies working in a language they had never seen before with skilled developers of the language. (the language was Jovial, for what it's worth). And it compared programming in assembler against a high level language. In no way did it represent the variability among a group of similar programmers (i.e. ones at a given wage tier in today's business). The real intention was to demonstrate the difficulty of developing simple estimation rules for software cost, which was starting to be a big concern back then. In practical terms, I think a productivity variation, averaged over a year's time, of 3:1 might be expected. As for any random process with a fairly high variance, in the short run, the fluctuations could be much greater. Hey, my productivity at programming varies 100:1 when sliced at a 1 day scale. Some days I don't do much at all (half a dozen matlab commands), others a I do a lot. Jim
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